Winners and losers in the Ukraine tussle

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 04/03/2025

His Majesty Charles III of England displayed a smile of confidence and compassion at the royal retreat in Sandringham upon receiving his guest of honour Volodomyr Zelenzky, thus reflecting the mood of Europe following the incident between the President of the United States and Zelenzky in the Oval Office. Most likely, the monarch was thinking that the sad incident opens a path for England individually and Europe as a whole to lay the foundations for a stage of economic and institutional strengthening that would have been impossible to take with the geopolitical cards that prevailed since 1945.

Today, the US administration wants to use the Ukraine conflict to define the boundaries of world geopolitics in which Russia should fit. This position aims at the immediate acceptance by the parties of a ceasefire, then the concession of territory to Russia and the keeping of Ukraine outside of NATO. The issue of granting advantages for the exploitation of rare minerals was an idea of Trump's to satisfy his MAGA followers led by Marjorie Taylor Green who want Ukraine to return the funds provided for its defense.

The incident in the Oval Office, however, has upset these plans. Because it has brought to light in a concrete instance what Henry Kissinger said about his country's conduct in the international arena: "Being an enemy of the United States is dangerous. But being its friend is much more dangerous." And this was the message that reached Europe.

Over the weekend, the main European countries met in England to assess the situation and determine the paths that exist to get out of the Ukraine conflict without endangering European security.

The conclusions could not have been more severe. For too long Europe has entrusted a large part of its security to the United States. The time has come to take control. Not only must defence spending be increased, but borders must be better protected and the market compacted.

These conclusions will lead to the strengthening of the European Union, whose obsession with the consolidation of the welfare state and the absorption of Eastern Europe into the liberal democratic system has prevented it from concentrating its attention on other challenges to its security, such as the ineffectiveness of its defensive systems in the theatre of war and the lack of innovation in the field of telecommunications. England, for its part, after a disastrous Brexit, has created a bridge with Europe and has emerged from the conflict with renewed leadership.

China, the distant but very present power in the European economic reality, is another winner. As Europe distances itself from the United States, China can deepen its relations with the EU while understanding that a move to seize Taiwan will follow the same path as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Strengthening economic ties with the EU can create the spark to reignite the economies of the EU and China. And it will also have Russia as a market for its products in exchange for the loans granted during the war.

Another winner in this situation is Recep Erdogan. Strengthening European security requires Turkey. Ending the war in Ukraine requires Turkey. Potential accession of Ukraine to NATO requires Turkey. And establishing trade relations between Ukraine and the Gulf countries is facilitated by Turkey's intervention.

India is also a winner. Modi, its prime minister, is no longer a supporting actor but a star of the geopolitical game. The United States believes that the end of the conflict with Ukraine and the reduction of spending on European security will free up resources to strengthen the Pacific front. Strengthening the Pacific front means big business for India in communication systems, data processing, construction of digital and physical infrastructure and of course in the art of diplomacy, as it becomes primus inter pares in relations with the United States.

The final arc of winners includes the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, nations that will serve as platforms for production and the establishment of U.S. bases.

But the big winner of the round that began with a call from Trump to Putin is the everlasting president of Russia. After being bogged down in an unwinnable war, in debt to the limit, with the economy reduced to its bare minimum by Western sanctions, a lifeline appears to rescue him from the growing rejection of his population. He will open doors to the Russian economy and codify his status as a world power. And all this despite having lost 800,000 combatants and not being able to take kyiv despite all efforts. The Russian victory will probably be accompanied by the neutralization of the Baltic countries and the division of the northern zone between Russia and the United States.

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».