Will Syria be another Libya?

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 09/12/2024

All accredited journalistic sources in Moscow agree that the victorious Syrian opposition movement known as HTS (Hayat Tharir al Sham) managed to mount a successful offensive without Iran and Russia, the main partners of the Syrian government, noticing. In fact, sources based in Tehran indicate that despite requests for assistance made by Assad 20 days ago, the Iranian regime not only did not respond affirmatively but began an operation to rescue Hezbollah troops deployed in Syria.

The Syrian surprise can only be compared to the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on December 26, 1991. The collapse of the former world power took the entire West, including the United States, by surprise.

In the case of Syria, the event is even more shocking because it was an internal rebellion with a capacity for maneuver and tactical deployment that rivals the best army in the world. This means that HTS had prepared this offensive with great care, accumulating weapons, recruiting troops and training shock brigades without dictator Bashar al Assad's intelligence detecting these movements.

The statements of HTS's top leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani so far seem encouraging, calling for reconciliation, respect for property and announcing the restoration of the rule of law. But despite these positive signs, there is a danger that the situation could degenerate into a tribal conflict like the one that followed the death of Gaddafi in Libya.

Indeed, while HTS is the largest movement, with 30,000 fighters who are more professional and better equipped thanks to their control of oil extraction areas, there are smaller movements that do not necessarily share their vision of establishing a secular state. Among these smaller movements, Nur Eddin ZInki stands out, who in the past tried to form a coalition with HTS, then broke away and returned to the alliance to join the Syrian Salvation Government within the Dawn of Freedom military operation. This operation has just won a victory by overthrowing Bashar al-Assad. Jaish al-Issa is another important movement within the coalition that has just liberated Syria. It has approximately 4,000 troops. It has received support from the West. It is geographically concentrated in the far north of Hama governorate and in some parts of Latakia. These groups only share the goal of liberating Syria from the fierce dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. Because while HTS, after fighting the West within the ranks of ISIS and Al Qaeda, is currently leaning towards a secular government of national understanding, the other groups prefer to continue with the thesis of the caliphate. Hence, the euphoria with which the fall of one of the most perverse regimes has been received in the West could turn into deep mourning if the coalition that achieved this feat collapses due to the lack of consensus around the political model to be established in this new stage. And even though until now all the declarations point towards the construction of national unity, we must not ignore the fact that there are nations in the area interested in intervening in Syria. One of them is Iran, which possibly will not refrain from penetrating Syrian territory with terrorist squads to carry out operations to disconcert and intimidate. Then there are the Kurds and their alliance with the United States to fight against Assad. Israel, for its part, has some military agreements with Syria. In order to achieve internal stabilization and regional peace, the Syrian government will have to seal internal agreements that preserve the union of the winning coalition and regional agreements that will allow it to defend itself against Iran. But this tapestry is yet to be woven. Hopefully, it will be woven, otherwise the country will enter a period of anarchy that could well send several million refugees to Europe who will enter by land through Turkey and exacerbate European nationalist feelings within a macroeconomic framework of paralysis. A far from encouraging perspective.

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