Venezuela: Modus Vivendi Habemus

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 12/02/2025

Both the leaders of the self-proclaimed Bolivarian regime that oppresses Venezuela and their henchmen can breathe in peace. The new US administration, far from returning to the Trump I policy of maximum pressure, has come to the conclusion that, for the moment, it is better to try a Modus Vivendi that allows the United States to free the hostages held by the Venezuelan regime and receive asphalt and oil to complement the national production that almost supplies the American market.

There will be those who are in rabid disagreement with this policy and those who think that, on the contrary, this policy will accelerate the internal decomposition of the regime. Paradoxically, both positions are somewhat right. The reduction of pressure on the regime makes the central argument of the regime that assigns responsibility for Venezuela's impoverishment to the pressures of the United States disappear. The lifting of pressure is equivalent to the famous cry "The emperor has no clothes" of the child in the fairy tale. This initiates a process of dissent within the Chavista body that could eventually lead to an implosion of the regime. For those who see the idea of a Modus Vivendi as unacceptable, reality also accompanies them. Any implosion takes time and the absence of pressure strengthens the ruling team in Venezuela.

Since Modus Vivendi is inevitable for several reasons, including, most importantly, the conviction of American rulers that Venezuela is a manageable threat whose weight cannot be compared with the Middle East crisis or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it may be up to the Venezuelan opposition to create a strategy to accelerate the decomposition of the regime and thus achieve the liberation of Venezuela by internal combustion. This demands the study of the successes and failures of other Modi Vivendi attempts in the history of International Relations to freeze, prevent or extinguish conflicts.

An example of the successful implementation of a Modus Vivendi is the one concluded between the Holy See and the communist government of Poland in 1949. The agreement provided for the creation of a joint commission made up of representatives of the communist regime and Polish bishops and a cardinal of the Holy See. The agreement allowed the Polish Catholic Church to rebuild itself, preserve titles and rights to its properties and foster the most important dissident movement against communism, led by Cardinal Josef Vojtyla, who assumed the leadership of the Catholic Church in 1978 under the name of John Paul II. The educational activity of the Polish Catholic Church created a civic culture that allowed the country to transcend the communist regime without violence and under the rule of law. And although the Modus Vivendi was highly criticized by both Poles and the rest of the world, it can be said that in perspective it was positive for the advent of democracy. In fact, Poland has been one of the most stable nations in Eastern Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain. However, it is essential to keep in mind that the Polish Catholic Church joined the agreement with a strategic plan to use the few resources that communism allowed it to use to strengthen the Catholic faith and civic behavior. Hence the success of the agreement as an incubator of Polish democracy. We do not know if the United States government has a similar plan for Venezuela.

An example of a harmful Modus Vivendi is the Akrama agreement signed in 1917 between the United Kingdom, Italy and the Sanussi Kingdom. While Italy obtained the release of its nationals imprisoned by the Sanussi Empire, the United Kingdom obtained custody of key trade routes and the Sanussi Kingdom was recognized as the sole authority to govern Libya. The Turkish ruler did not recognize the Sanussi's agreement on trade routes and did not recognize Idris Al Sanussi's authority to govern Libya. Thus, the Modus Vivendi transformed existing conflicts into future conflicts that affected the power base of two of the participants. Critics of this agreement consider that the fundamental flaw of this Modus Vivendi was that only Italy had a clear and achievable objective while both the United Kingdom and the Sanussi Kingdom intended to use the agreement to modify the behavior of a third actor that was not part of it, namely the Ottoman Empire. This is very reminiscent of the current situation of the democratic forces in Venezuela, where one sees dispersion and little concentration in the search for a fundamental objective that, in addition to uniting the various factions, can achieve advantages over that regime via the Modus Vivendi concluded de facto by the United States with the Venezuelan regime.

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