Petro and Catatumbo

By: Pedro Corzo - 12/02/2025

Guest columnist.
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Colombian President Gustavo Petro's political legacy will most likely be determined by the way the Catatumbo crisis is resolved, although his situation is seriously affected by the accusation that he revealed information related to national security to the National Liberation Army, ELN, a group identified with narco-terrorism.

President Petro's government does not seem to have everything in its favour. In many parts of Colombian territory there are serious problems of governability. Different armed groups carry out violent acts and this situation threatens to spread to more regions at a time when analysts and researchers agree that the Colombian Armed Forces have been weakened and their numbers have been reduced, as has their budget, by decision of the president himself.

The military has sounded the alarm about a serious budget cut for 2025. General Hugo López, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, warned of the possible negative consequences this could have on military operations.

Medellin Mayor Federico Fico Gutierrez accused Petro of wanting to turn Colombia into another Venezuela or Cuba, by seeking to isolate the country and harm the Armed Forces for the benefit of criminal structures such as those operating in Catatumbo.

The Medellín mayor does not mince his words. He made numerous and severe criticisms of the president for defunding projects for his city and the department. In addition, he pointed out that another of the main entities affected by the budget reduction was the National Electoral Council, which in his opinion shows that Petro does not want to leave in 2026, by trying to destabilize that authority by reducing more than 50% of its budget.

Catatumbo is a rich agricultural region in Colombia, bordering Venezuela, which extends from the Central Mountain Range to Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo, the largest in Latin America and probably the most polluted and with the greatest environmental problems, due to the inefficiency of environmentalist Nicolas Maduro.

The area has become a conflict zone in which the ELN, the so-called dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, the Gulf Clan and the Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela have created the most important coca-growing enclave in the country. A United Nations report from 2024 estimates that Catatumbo had at least 43,000 hectares of coca leaves in 2023.

This part of Colombia, despite being very rich in natural resources, has been one of the most turbulent regions in the country. Violence has never been absent and in recent months the clashes between the narco-guerilla groups FARC and ELN, apart from leaving dozens dead, have also caused the displacement of tens of thousands of people.

The situation is likely to get worse, because apart from the reaction that the Colombian State is obliged to carry out against criminals, the Venezuelan State is also involved through its military units, the Army or the National Guard, which have allied themselves with factions of the ELN and the FARC, two organized crime groups that have served the Venezuelan dictatorship in different ways, while also receiving its support.

The president, Petro, promoted a “total peace” agreement with the ELN narco-guerilla, the most active and numerous irregular group in the country, a project that failed. Later, the former guerrilla ordered military maneuvers with Maduro’s Armed Forces, described as an ally of his government, while he is a partner of the ELN and the remnants of the FARC, an agreement that seems to indicate that they are the same and the same.

More than one analyst believes that in any future dialogue with the ELN, the Colombian government will have to accept Caracas as a third interlocutor, not as a mediator, something similar to the talks in Havana with the FARC sponsored by President Juan Manuel Santos in which the Castros were parties and not mediators.

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