Keys to measure the impact of Yevgeny Prigozhin's adventure

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 28/06/2023

The commotion caused by the bizarre event of the insurgency and withdrawal of the Wagner mercenary army under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin should not hide the tectonic faults that the Russian nation exhibits and that could lead the world to another global conflict as was the case of the First World War.

The first tectonic fault has to do with the despotic culture that prevails in Russia. Thanks to the ubiquity of the cameras, we were able to see sectors of the Russian population celebrating the possible fall of Mr. Putin and the rise to power of Mr. Prigozhin. It thus became clear that a democratic scheme will not be the door to get out of Putin's authoritarianism since the population seems to be willing to follow or/or support another despot who, in the case of Mr. Prigozhin, exhibits clear psychic imbalances.

Then the fragility of the institutional framework on which Mr. Putin relies was visible. No public institution mobilized against the insurgents. The immobility was tied to two factors. On the one hand, no one dared to confront an insurgent close to Putin, and on the other, no one knew for sure what was happening. This means that anytime there is a disagreement between Putin's network of associates capable of generating an armed conflict, there will be institutional paralysis that can be used by the protagonist of the uprising to gain ground. And this could lead to a civil war which would not be an unprecedented experience for Russia.

Let's not forget the shadowy shadow of the letter N. Russia has nearly 6,000 nuclear weapons, the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and can launch it from land-based missiles, submarines, or aircraft. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the West created a network of exchanges with the leaders Gorbachev and Yeltsin to effectively manage the custody of these weapons. But since the advent of Mr Putin this system of exchanges has been put in the greenhouse. So today it is not known for sure who guards them or who has the authority to operate them.

In a regime whose base is a network of partners and not institutions such as parliament, courts and a structured civil service, any escalation of a conflict like the one in which Mr. Prigozhin led could open the doors to the use of these weapons and unleash a war. nuclear. The consequences of this outcome are really difficult to foresee or to deal with successfully. We can only assume that there will be a holocaust and the destruction of a significant segment of the global economy affecting everything from the United States to China.

And even though the waters have not yet returned to their level after the Prigozhin adventure, we can predict that the months that separate us from 2024 will present many shocks inside and outside Russia and that we will have to live with a much more suspicious, vindictive, Putin. isolated and unpredictable. This will make it much more difficult to move towards a negotiation of the conflict with Ukraine.

Wagner's withdrawal will weaken an already bloodless Russia since its war plans called for a short war. After one year, the resources assigned to the effort have been consumed; Western sanctions have begun to reduce sources of income and Russia is virtually isolated except for the solidarity of other despostes like Lukashenko in Belarus who can only provide tactical support. These conditions are going to create unsustainable pressures for Putin who, in the midst of his depressed state, can react like a wounded beast and make more irrational decisions. This will aggravate the conflict and the situation in Europe. And of course it will make it very complex to evade nuclear deployment. .

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