Has Russia started the partition of Ukraine?

By: Ricardo Israel - 2022/09/26

Everything seems to indicate that the referendums in the Donestsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia territories are the beginning of the Russian attempt to divide Ukraine. In the first two there are self-declared “autonomous republics” since 2014 and not recognized by anyone else, in Zaporizhia there is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and Kherson (or Kherson) is an important city-port of the Black Sea, and as well as The annexation of Crimea has not been recognized, nor does it seem that it will happen in this annexation.

It would be the third stage of the invasion that began in February. The first was the failure of the offensive on kyiv and the change of Zelensky's government, which, on the contrary, grew stronger. The second is reflected in the current military stalemate in the Donbas, where after a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive there appears to be a war of position.

In this third stage, the division of Ukraine seems to be sought. The call for these referendums, the result of which is favorable to Russia is already known in advance, has coincided with several other decisions, with which it is closely linked. In the first place, that Putin has resorted, and after several months, to a national network to announce a mobilization of reservists, three hundred thousand at the start, an amount that could be increased as necessary.

This measure that recognizes a war situation, although still without mentioning it and insisting on the narrative of a “special operation” has been greeted with protests in the streets, although nothing seems to indicate that Putin's power has cracked significantly. As it does not seem to be something that is going to change the military situation on the ground, it must be linked to the project for the division of Ukraine, since it seems to be a necessary amount to be installed on the new borders, which in this scenario would be with NATO. , in the official Moscow speech.

It also coincides with the analysis of former Admiral James G. Stavridis of the United States, in the sense that the arrival of winter could find a situation that reminded him of what happened last century in Korea.

Secondly, the Russian parliament toughened the punishment for those who criticize the invasion as well as new crimes that include soldiers abandoning their unit, surrendering to the enemy and refusing to obey a superior, which reflect what was experienced in the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that by continuing with the fiction that war is not war, they were not receiving enough punishment.

In third place, international actions, where two are especially noteworthy. On the one hand, the official Chinese announcement that a prompt solution to the war issue was desired, which undoubtedly was discussed between Putin and Xi Jinping at their recent meeting at a Security Summit in Uzbekistan, and which plays in favor of the Chinese leader, for the next Congress of the Communist Party, which could transform him into a dictator for life. On the other side, the world was informed by Turkey's Erdogan that Putin wanted to end the war, again acting as mouthpiece for the Russian.

Fourth, an upcoming prisoner exchange was made public that satisfies both, since on the Ukrainian side the Russians would return leaders of the Azov Regiment who resisted the siege of an emblematic steel plant for several weeks, and on the Russian side, the pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvechuck, former vice president of the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament), a person very close to the Kremlin.

This is how everything seems to be part of a new stage of the war, the referendums, the partial but close to war mobilization of reservists, the changes to the legislation, the Turkish and Chinese announcements, obviously with the Russian approval, everything seems to fit It also fits what is not said, that Russia does not seem to be in a position to obtain any other type of territorial control than the one it already had on the ground even before starting the invasion. Now it is seeking to create a de facto situation, contenting itself with the breaking up of Ukrainian territory, the consolidation of a land corridor from Russia to Crimea, the domain of the Sea of ??Azov, but along with recognizing that for now, it is not in a position to conquer more Ukrainian territory, refuses to transform that country into a Mediterranean country, since it maintains Odessa and its outlet to the Black Sea.

Will Putin succeed?

It depends on several things.

First, whether or not the scenario that Moscow seems to be thinking of, which is the arrival of winter, is given or not, which makes it difficult to think of a change in the war situation, which differs from the current stagnation.

Second, whether or not the scenario in the West is modified, considering the political changes that could take place in Europe and also in the United States, after the next elections in November. To this, we must add the very difficult energy situation in Europe, adding an economic crisis and the lack of immediate alternatives to Russian gas, and whose first reaction can be seen in the economic adjustment announced in the United Kingdom. Let us remember that they are democracies where the voice of the polls precedes the political and economic decisions of the governments.

Third, whether or not Russia takes advantage of the opportunity to implement a series of laws and decrees that coincide with the ideology that ensures that the Kremlin represents a Russian area that goes far beyond the current republic with that name, and that it would encompass to any place where significant numbers of Russian speakers are present. This would be the case today, at least in Ossetia broken off from Georgia since the 2008 war, in Transnistria in Moldova, and in the oblast or administrative territory of Kaliningrad, neighboring the Baltic countries.

Will Russia take advantage of it to transform a de facto situation into something similar to what it is trying to do with Ukraine today? We do not know. What is known is that the desire to confront Russia has been largely limited to Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States, what is known as the West, since the truth is that in Latin America, Africa or Asia it does not seem to matter too much, and with the doubts if a hard winter would affect the will on the part of Europe.

Fourth, there is a big theme behind all this, where after the end of the Soviet Union, the idea of ??a Russian civilization remains valid, from the tsars to today. Perhaps similar elements occurred in the border wars between the new countries that emerged from the Spanish empire in the 19th century. Also in the Middle East, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War, with unresolved territorial issues to this day.

Does this mean that the judgment of history is less severe with the Russians? Not in any way. The violation of international law with the invasion is a crime and should be punished as such, not unlike what Saddam did when he invaded Kuwait, no matter how much he considered it “the 27th province” of Iraq.

If it means two things, that, in the three cases mentioned, in many situations the new countries followed the geographical and legal limits of the empires that crumbled, with the respective inheritance. And second, they are processes that could have had different results, for example, in the case of Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear weapons, with an unfulfilled promise by the USA and the United Kingdom to guarantee the territorial integrity of the new country.

What about today with the Russian threat to use tactical nuclear weapons? I believe that it is an unacceptable threat that must be rejected, but it is not new, since it has been used since the time of the Soviet Union, only that we had forgotten about it. It was strongly present in Soviet doctrine, especially after the failures in Afghanistan and Reagan's triumph in the USA.

Personally, I trust in the predominance of common sense, that its objective is only to undermine the European will, and that, in Russia, as in the USA, it does not depend only on the decision of one person, but several participate, exemplified in the Gorbachev coup d'état, where the military blocked the path of these weapons to the coup plotters.

The current situation is showing several things: the strengthening of China, as announced by the head of MI5, the United Kingdom Intelligence; as well as that militarily Russia was weaker than it was supposed to be, although the sanctions have not achieved the objective of dissuading or stopping it, and that Europe still does not have a military presence or at least a security presence similar to its economic strength, now still most notoriously, without the UK.

Hopefully, Russia will not succeed and also fail in this initiative, but clearly a new will is needed to impose peace in the world, since the line for the sum is that everything would be much more difficult against China.

“The opinions published here are the sole responsibility of their author.”