Ecuador: the crossroads of democracy

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 18/02/2025

On February 9 of this year, Ecuador proved to be the victim of a sharp polarization between the followers of former President Rafael Corea and his opponents who lack a true leader. These results deferred the presidential election to a second round that will take place on April 13. But the truth is that this date will be a watershed in the history of Ecuador because the decision of the sovereign depends on whether the Peruvian miracle of decoupling between the economy and politics is consolidated in Ecuador or whether the progress achieved until now is reversed.

Ecuador is one of the few nations that can proudly boast that it has reduced poverty over the past fifty years. This feat was achieved for two reasons. The repressive and controlling spirit of the military dictatorship led them to riddle the country with communication routes. The entire country is crisscrossed by paved roads and highways. This has allowed for significant links to the world economy. Secondly, there is the dollarization of the economy. This measure adopted by President Jamil Mahuad has brought economic stability to the country and economic openness to its workers.

Economic growth driven by diversified exports ranging from oil to flowers, broccoli, shrimp and berries has brought hundreds of thousands of families who had only known poverty into development. Today, one can see with shock the presence of single-family homes where new floors have been added with modern construction materials. Low-income neighborhoods have roads and their inhabitants own vehicles. The human development index has moved from the lowest levels to the center in just twenty-five years. In short, Ecuador is on track to achieve development in the next twenty-five years.

The decision she makes on April 13 could preserve or halt the achievements made so far. Because while it is true that the Noboa option leaves much to be desired, the Gonzalez option is a safe passport to the country's past of poverty and exclusion. In effect, Mrs. Gonzalez represents the movement for the restoration of the leadership of Rafael Correa, who governed during the most fabulous oil boom in the history of that commodity. However, her administration wiped out the country's savings placed in various pension funds and put it in debt for several decades. Had the dollarization decreed by Mahuad not been in place, Ecuador would surely have experienced a default that would have paralyzed its economy. Secondly - and this is of fundamental significance for the rest of South America - a Gonzalez administration would strengthen the alliance between South American narco-states such as Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela and Nicaragua. This, in addition to increasing the violence that is already dramatic, would attract the imposition of preventive restrictions on Ecuador's access to the international financial system. In terms of violence, we only have to remember how in 2022 the pro-Correa forces received logistical and material support from the Venezuelan regime to set the country on fire with violence that caused the greatest economic decline in the last decade. TY of course the rule of law would collapse in the face of the use of laws and their enforcement agencies as weapons of persecution of anyone who thinks differently from Correaism. All this would translate into a colossal halt to the march of progress that the country took more than thirty years ago.

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